In 2004, the federal government began implementing the Medicare Part D program, which explains most of the massive $10+ trillion “true” deficit we estimate for that year.

In 2016, the Medicare program trustees bumped their estimated insolvency year for the program to 2028, which was two years earlier than they previously calculated. The trustees changed some of the assumptions underlying their projections, including expectations for lower productivity growth, higher prescription drug costs, and higher utilization of inpatient hospital care on the expenditure side of the coin, while lowering their expectations for money received in the future based upon taxable payrolls. 

Based upon 2019 Medicare Trustees’ Report, the estimated unfunded Medicare amount will grow significantly due to several factors including lower assumed productivity growth, slower projected growth in the utilization of skilled nursing facility services, higher costs in general and lower income estimates.