“… If we call the difference between the risk-free rate of return (30-year Treasury yield) and the discount rate the 'implied risk premium,' we can see that the implied risk premium has declined from 2 percent in 2000 to 4.5 percent today. This would imply that the probability of Austin defaulting on its pension debt has more than doubled, which is highly unlikely. The more likely explanation is that COAERS is underestimating the value of its pension debt.”